Connect with me on Facebook, Twitter and Google+CLEAR TODAY: It's a clear sky to begin the day across West Texas with the temp in the 30s and 40s. It's mainly clear all the way up into southern Kansas and west to California. A small wave in the upper atmosphere is leading to the clouds over the Central Plains and some snow around Denver. It'll be a blue sky Monday here, though a little cooler than yesterday's high of 72. Behind a weak front the high temp will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across our area, N wind 10-20mph. TOMORROW: It'll start cool, in the upper 20s to low 30s. We'll see some clouds build in from the west, high again in the upper 50s to low 60s. RAIN POTENTIAL: Our focus now is on a strong upper-level storm system that is now west of Vancouver. It'll dive down across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners by Wednesday. In response to this system low-level moisture will first return to South Texas and the Trans-Pecos region of West Texas by late tomorrow night. It should begin to move into our area by early Wednesday, with dew points in the 40s. There may be some low clouds or even drizzle early Wednesday, with possibly a few weak thunderstorms just east of our area in the morning. The best moisture should make it into the area by late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, dew points to about 50.Most models show a dry line developing somewhere in the area by Wednesday afternoon. This is the boundary that has dry air to its west, humid air to the east. It can be the focal point for storm development. It doesn't look like the dry line itself will be enough for storms, but as the big upper-level system moves in from the west, it should provide the lift needed to break through the cap sometime late Wednesday aftenoon into Wednesday night, leading to scattered showers and storms. The limiting factor earlier in the day appears to be clouds keep it cool and stable. Even though there will be clouds...there might be a few sprinkles or light showers during the day.SEVERE THREAT?: The NAM model has been most aggressive the past few days on heating up Wednesday, leading to the setup for some severe storms. The GFS and European models haven't been quite as agressive. There will be lots of shear, but instability will be low. At this point it appears there could be strong wind gusts with any storms that form late Wednesday, but the organized severe threat is farther downstate. Here is the day 3 severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, highlighting where severe storms are possible Wednesday: If greater instability develops than models are showing now then the severe risk would be adjusted farther west.REST OF THE WEEK: It turns windy behind this storms system on Thursday. The weekend looks quiet for now, with 60s and a good supply of sunshine.Another storm system approaches Monday but it doesn't look like moisture returns in the air for any rain, should just keep the breeze up. Have a great day! Rudy will have the next full forecast later this afternoon.-Matt
Frenship ISD is having a staff development day on Monday. Lubbock Cooper ISD students will have the day off thanks to an unused snow day. LISD will have a normal day on Monday, but has scheduled a half-day for Friday.
Connect with me on Facebook and Twitter!After some storms last night for our northeastern counties, we have cleared up quickly with sunny skies across West Texas all day. The clear skies will continue overnight tonight, which will allow the heat from today to be released so we'll start off the day on the chilly side for Monday, in the mid 20s.For the most part we'll have mostly sunny skies for Monday afternoon and a high in the mid to upper 50s, right near average. Clouds will begin to creep in overnight though and that's when our chances for rain begin.Rain ChancesA low pressure system will pass just to the north of the South Plains early Tuesday morning. This has the potential to provide some much needed rain to the area. That low will pull in warmer air overnight, meaning we won't drop very low Tuesday morning. The freezing line will be situated across the Panhandle so we should stay above freezing which means any precipitation should stay rain. As the day goes on, we will continue to see that chance for rain, but a cold front associated with that low will work it's way across the area and keep our high only in the mid to upper 40s.Snow ChancesThe freezing line starts to migrate southward during the late afternoon hours. For our far northwestern counties this means there could be a wintery mix or some light snow, but very little accumulation. For the rest of the South Plains we will likely stay south of the freezing line, but don't rule out a wintery mix and a very light chance for some very light snow the further north you are for Tuesday night.Tuesday is also going to be a windy day because of the tight pressure gradient surrounding the low pressure system. Winds will start off from the southeast around 10 mph, but as soon as that cold front swings though, winds will shift to coming from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph.Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the snow and rain will migrate north out of the area and we'll start to see clear skies towards sunrise on Wednesday. We'll drop down to the mid 20s again and warm into the upper 50s with plenty of sun. Sun continues Thursday as well as temperatures in the upper 50s. Another system arrives sometime on Friday morning and that will drop our afternoon temperatures into the low 50s and bring some cloud cover. Right now our chances for any more precipitation aren't looking good, but we'll know better as that system nears. Temperatures are likely to remain below average through the start of the weekend, but we should see the sunshine return by Saturday.Join Kurt, Nick and I tonight on the News at Nine.-Caitlin
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